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Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models

机译:测试动态因素模型中的结构性断裂

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摘要

In this paper we investigate the consequences of structural breaks in the factor loadings for the specification and estimation of factor models based on principal components and suggest procedures for testing for structural breaks. It is shown that structural breaks severely inflate the number of factors identified by the usual information criteria. The hypothesis of a structural break is tested by using LR, LM and Wald statistics. The LM test (which performs best in our Monte Carlo simulations) is generalized to test for structural breaks in factor models where the break date is unknown and the common factors and idiosyncratic components are serially correlated. The proposed test procedures are applied to datasets from the US and the euro area.
机译:在本文中,我们研究了结构载荷中的结构性断裂对规范和基于主成分的因子模型估计的后果,并提出了测试结构性断裂的程序。结果表明,结构性断裂严重加剧了按常规信息标准确定的因素的数量。通过使用LR,LM和Wald统计数据检验了结构破坏的假设。 LM测试(在我们的蒙特卡洛模拟中表现最佳)被普遍用于测试因子模型中的结构断裂,在该模型中,断裂日期未知,并且公因子与特质成分是连续相关的。建议的测试程序将应用于来自美国和欧元区的数据集。

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