A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR HIGH PATHOGENICITY AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUSES EMERGING FROM OUTBREAKS WITH LOW PATHOGENICITY AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUSES

摘要

In this article, we establish a mathematical model for a complexity phenomenon that emerges from epidemiology. After the low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) A virus (H5N2) outbreaks, most of time the high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses will emerges. This superinfection property is a typical complexity emerging from a system. Our model is based on traditional mathematical epidemiology models, experimental and field evidences. It has several submodels which are traditional SEIR models or SIR models. We analyze our model and their submodels. We carry out comparisons between model predictions and experimental data, and answer several important biological questions with our model. In addition, the complexity property is not derived from bifurcation theory.