...
首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >HESS Opinions 'on forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: Curse or blessing?'
【24h】

HESS Opinions 'on forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: Curse or blessing?'

机译:HESS的观点“关于水文气象链中的预测(不一致):诅咒还是祝福?”

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例

摘要

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.
机译:洪水预报越来越依赖于数值天气预报,以实现更长的交货时间。在为这些洪水预报建立决策框架时出现的主要困难之一是,当连续预报如此不同以至于它们在发出警告或触发其他行动时得出不同的结论时,该怎么办。在此意见书中,我们探讨了围绕此类预测不一致问题(也称为“跳跃性”,“转折点”,“连续性”或“摆动次数”)的一些问题。在意见书中,我们定义了预测不一致;讨论预测可能不一致的原因;我们应该如何分析不一致之处;以及我们应该怎么做;我们应该如何沟通以及它是否完全是不受欢迎的财产。在许多预测环境中,一致性的属性正日益成为热门话题。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号