Brazils Caught Between a Drought and a Hard Place

摘要

With drought becoming the new normal in Brazil, a third straight year of low rainfall has drained hydro supplies for electricity to critical levels. Barring historic amounts of rain before the start of the dry season in May, the prospect of power rationing looms large for the first time in more than a decade. Brazilian power companies are still traumatized by memories of 2001, when widespread drought caused rolling blackouts, in turn prompting the installation of nearly 10 gigawatts of mostly gas-fired backup thermal capacity. Annual rainfall last year was similar to 14 years ago. The amount that made its way into Brazil's hydropower reservoir system was 81% of the long-term average, compared with 82% in 2001, according to AES, one of Brazil's largest power suppliers. The situation has become even worse since January, and AES reckons the country will start the dry season with rainfall having reached just 31 %-40% of annual average volumes. As a result, the reservoir system across the country's four main regions is only 27.9% full.