Challenges, yes, but China growth outlook is good for the next 20 years

摘要

The following Information is a summotion by the WJI of points discussed at a Dec. 13 seminar in New York City by Arthur Kroeber, managing editor of the China Economic Quarterly. A graduate of Harvard College, he began working in Asia in 1987 as a journalist specializing in economic affairs, and has reported from China, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Thailand and Nepal, From 1992 to 2002 he was a correspondent of the Economist Intelligence Unit covering China and South Asia and was the author of numerous research reports on China and India. He is a regular contributor to the opinion page of the Financial Times and has had articles in The Economist, the Far Eastern Economic Review, Wired, and numerous newspapers. He speaks freguently on the Chinese economy. For more information on CEQ, go to www.theceq.com. China's economy: It can be difficult to understand the economic data, but it appears that GDP for China is 20 percent bigger than thought. The main lesson most of us have learned is the tendency of most outside analysts to underestimate the economy. They dwell on the negatives. Our conclusion is that China will see economic growth of 8 percent over the next 20 years. I don't see any economic factor that suggests a marked slowdown in the growth rate. That growth is a function of demographics, population, work force and education, China's economy is larger than reported, mostly due to the service industry. The country is heavily industrialized as industry provides about half of GDP and those numbers are okay.