Identification and assessment of production plan execution risk in a mining company

摘要

Production process in coal mining is planned in not completely explored, changeable mining-geological conditions. Changeable mining-geological conditions and disappointing technical-organisational systems result in that the production from a longwall is a random variable that can be characterised by average values and standard deflections as measure of dissipation of results around the average ones. From the Statistics point of view changeability coefficients could be used for describing of this changeability. The article defines multi-dimensional random variables, presents mathematical model of the problem and determines technical-organisational excess and risk of not realisation of the plan.