Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts of 2-m Temperature over Australia

摘要

This paper describes an extension of an operational consensus forecasting (OCF) scheme from site forecasts to gridded forecasts. OCF is a multimodel consensus scheme including bias correction and weighting. Bias correction and weighting are done on a scale common to almost all multimodel inputs (1.258), which are then downscaled using a statistical approach to an approximately 5-km-resolution grid. Local and international numerical weather prediction model inputs are found to have coarse scale biases that respond to simple bias correction, with the weighted average consensus at 1.258 outperforming all models at that scale. Statistical downscaling is found to remove the systematic representativeness error when downscaling from 1.258 to 5 km, though it cannot resolve scale differences associated with transient small-scale weather.