Using fractional GM(1,1) model to predict the maintenance cost of weapon system

摘要

In order to improve the prediction performance for maintenance cost of weapon systems, the grey system model with the fractional order accumulation (FGM(1,1)) is used to predict the maintenance cost of weapon systems with small sample. FGM(1, 1) yielded the lower MAPE in the in-sample model and the much lower MAPE in the out-of-sample model, which means that FGM(1,1) can predict the memory process. FGM(1,1) can predict the maintenance cost of other weapon systems.