Analysis and Forecast of Road Traffic Safety Improvement in The Netherlands

摘要

Road traffic safety has substantially improved in The Netherlands. In order to redesign program "Duurzaam Veilige Infrastructuur" (Sustainable Safe Infrastructure), this paper analyses the Dutch situation and explores potential factors that may have contributed to the traffic safety improvement in the past years. In addition, it investigates the use of GM(1,1), to model traffic accident severity (in terms of fatalities) in The Netherlands for the period 2003-2008, and to forecast the trend of the reduction of fatalities in the years 2009 and 2010. Error analysis shows that the applied model has a high degree of reliability. Therefore, it is concluded that GM(1,1) is applicable for short-term forecasting of this type of problem.