Predicting Road Accidents and Prioritizing Road Safety Improvement Measures in Developing Countries Using Adapted Traffic Conflict Techniques

摘要

Road accidents in developing countries are increasing at an alarming rate. Deaths due to roadaccidents are becoming the single biggest killer in developing countries. Although there is a pressingneed for improving road safety, it has been observed that improvement measures are not taken upsystematically. Unless all stakeholders are involved and a system wide road safety approach isconsidered, local improvements will not reduce the total number of accidents. Thus, there is an urgentneed to identify and undertake prioritized road safety improvement actions across the roadwaysystem. In countries like India, where road accidents are not recorded accurately, data on causes ofvarious types of accidents is not readily available hindering policy making in planning andimplementing road safety improvement measures.In this research, a mathematical model for predicting road accidents and prioritizing roadsafety improvement measures is introduced for Indian road conditions. An adapted version of theTraffic Conflict Techniques is used to assess the main causes of accidents on Indian roads. Analysisand results of the conflict data are used to develop a mathematical model to identify and prioritizeroad safety measures. Recommendations made in this study can be used by agencies with limitedresources to employ proposed low cost techniques suggested in this research to identify high priorityroad safety issues and prioritize their respective road safety improvement initiatives.