Petrochemicals

摘要

Petrochemical demand is generally soft but expected to gradually pick up in response to an improving US economy. Caution remains the order of the day, however, as uncertainty about the global economy persists due to recessionary conditions in Europe and Japan and decelerating growth in China. We project growth for US petrochemical demand of 2.6% for 2012 and 1.6% for 2013, following a scant 0.9% gain in 2011. Underlying the forecast is our expectation that US GDP growth will be 2.1% in 2012 and 2.3% in 2013. In the Eurozone, GDP will decline 0.5% this year and increase just 0.8% in 2013. The Chinese economy will grow 8.3% in 2012 and 8.6% in 2013, a marked deceleration from the last couple of years. We assume that China's economy is experiencing a soft landing; however, the possibility of a hard landing cannot be ruled out. The recession of 2008-09 had caused a 25% decline in the demand for US petrochemicals.