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SIMULATION OF STRATEGIES FOR CONTAINING PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

机译:大流行性流感感染的策略模拟

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摘要

We use a stochastic simulation model of pandemic influenza to investigate realistic intervention strategies that can be used in reaction to developing outbreaks. The model is constructed to represent a typical midsized North American city. Our model predicts average illness attack rates and economic costs for various intervention scenarios, e.g., in the case when low-coverage reactive vaccination and limited antiviral use are combined with minimally disruptive social distancing strategies, including short-term closure of individual schools. We find that such combination strategies can be substantially more effective than vaccination alone from epidemiological and economic standpoints.
机译:我们使用大流行性流感的随机模拟模型来调查可用于应对疾病爆发的现实干预策略。该模型代表了典型的北美中型城市。我们的模型预测了各种干预方案的平均疾病发作率和经济成本,例如,在低覆盖率的反应性疫苗接种和有限的抗病毒药物使用与最小破坏性的社会疏远策略相结合的情况下,包括短期关闭个别学校。我们发现,从流行病学和经济的角度来看,这种联合策略比单独疫苗接种更有效。

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