A CONTACT-NETWORK-BASED SIMULATION MODEL FOR EVALUATING INTERVENTIONS UNDER 'WHAT-IF' SCENARIOS IN EPIDEMIC

摘要

Infectious disease pandemics/epidemics have been serious concerns worldwide. Simulations for public health interventions are practically helpful in assisting policy makers to make wise decisions to control and mitigate the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, we present our contact network based simulation model, which is designed to accommodate various "what-if" scenarios under single and combined interventions. With the incorporation of parallel computing and optimization techniques, our model is able to reflect the dynamics of disease spread in a realistic social contact network based on Singapore city, simulating combined intervention strategies as well as control effect at different levels of a social component. The framework of our model and experimental results show that it is a useful tool for epidemiological study and public health policy planning.