Evaluation of future climate change impact on snow hydrology for a mountainous watershed of South Korea using SLURP model and NOAA AVHRR images

摘要

This study is to evaluate the future potential climate impact on snow hydrology using SLURP model for a 6661.0 km(2) mountainous watershed of South Korea. For the model test, the NOAA AVHRR images were analyzed to prepare snow-related data of the model. Snow cover areas were extracted using channels 1, 3, and 4, and the snow depth was spatially interpolated using snowfall data of 11 ground meteorological stations. With the snowmelt parameters (snow cover area, snow water equivalent, and snow depth), the model was calibrated for 2 sets (20022003, 2004-2005), and verified for 2 sets (1997-1998 and 2001-2002) using the calibrated parameters. The average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies during the full year period (December to November) and snowmelt period (December to April) were 0.60 and 0.66, respectively. The future climate data of CCCma CGCM2 SRES A2 and B2 scenarios were adjusted and downscaled using change factor method. By the future impact of climate change, the annual dam inflows were projected to change maximum -29.3 and -30.4 % for 2090s A2 scenario and 2030s for B2 scenario, respectively. The future dam inflow increased in winter season (December to February) up to 222.0 %, while other periods decreased up to 54.8 %. The future snowmelt increased in December and January by the future temperature increase of 3.9 degrees C in minimum. The future snowmelt for the 2 months affected the dam inflows during the winter season.