Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Snowmelt in Mountainous Watersheds of South Korea Using SLURP Hydrogical Model

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate climate impact on snow hydrology using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process) model for two mountainous watersheds ( 6661.5 km~2 and B; 2694.4 km~2) of South Korea. The climate change results ofCCCma CGCM2 based on SRES A2 and B2 were adopted. Four sets ofNOAAAVHRR images (1997-1998, 1999-2000, 2000-2001) were analyzed to prepare snow-related data of the model. Snow cover areas were extracted using channels 1, 3 and 4, and the snow depth was spatially interpolated using snowfall data of ground meteorological stations. For 4 years (1997-1998, 1999-2000, 2000-2001) discharge comparison, the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of watersheds during the snow period (December to May) were 0.64 and0.88, respectively In case ofA2 scenario, the 2100 runoff of A and B watersheds for 44.4 % and 85.9 % increase of snowfall increased 67.3 % and 19.6% comparing with the 2000 runoff. In case of B2 scenario, the 2100 runoff for 10.3 % and 41.3 % increase of snowfall increased 38.8 % and 9.8% for A and B watersheds, respectively. The results showed that the time ofsnowmelt runoff was advanced about one month.