Surging gas production oversupplies Alberta, driving AECO forwards down

摘要

Slower withdrawals and the possibility of exceptionally strong production this summer have driven the AECO forward curve to low levels. This summer, Alberta must either find an end-user for its glut of gas or risk pushing its oversupply issue even further into the future. While Platts unit Bentek Energy expects strong production in Western Canada compared with recent years, December and January have exceeded even those forecasts. Bentek forecasts production in Western Canada to average 14.8 Bcf/d in 2016, but over the past two months it has averaged 15.5 Bcf/d. This is about 1.1 Bcf/d higher than the same period last year. As a result, storage withdrawals have averaged considerably below normal.