摘要:Background:The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is causing a havoc globally,exacerbated by the newly dis-covered SARS-CoV-2 virus.Due to its high population density,India is one of the most badly effected countries from the first wave of COVID-19.Therefore,it is extremely necessary to accurately predict the state-wise and overall dynamics of COVID-19 to get the effective and efficient organization of resources across India.Methods:In this study,the dynamics of COVID-19 in India and several of its selected states with different demo-graphic structures were analyzed using the SEIRD epidemiological model.The basic reproductive ratio Ro was sys-temically estimated to predict the dynamics of the temporal progression of COVID-19 in India and eight of its states,Andhra Pradesh,Chhattisgarh,Delhi,Gujarat,Madhya Pradesh,Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu,and Uttar Pradesh.Results:For India,the SEIRD model calculations show that the peak of infection is expected to appear around the middle of October,2020.Furthermore,we compared the model scenario to a Gaussian fit of the daily infected cases and obtained similar results.The early imposition of a nation-wide lockdown has reduced the number of infected cases but delayed the appearance of the infection peak significantly.Conclusion:After comparing our calculations using India's data to the real life dynamics observed in Italy and Russia,we can conclude that the SEIRD model can predict the dynamics of COVID-19 with sufficient accuracy.