In the Wrong Place at the Wrong Time? Assessing some Planning, Transport and Housing Market Limits to Urban Consolidation Policies

摘要

Climate change and higher transport energy prices are now pressing urban policy issues and increasing attention is being directed to the capacity of metropolitan planning to overcome these challenges. For the past two decades Australian metropolitan plans have focused on urban consolidation as a means of reducing transport energy demand. Transport energy dependence is highest in outer and fringe suburban areas. But the structure of urban housing markets means the capacity of current Australian urban planning policies to achieve consolidation objectives in middle and outer areas is highly constrained, especially if the delivery of density gains is delegated to the private sector. The article contends that current planning policies which rely on urban consolidation therefore have limited potential to produce significant transport emission reductions in suburbia. Such policies also risk generating socially inequitable distributional outcomes given higher transport fuel costs from an emissions trading scheme or higher global oil prices. The article calls for a comprehensive rethink of current metropolitan transport, urban planning and suburban development models to achieve reductions in transport energy dependence in the middle and outer suburban areas of Australian cities.%气候变化和交通能源价格的上涨迫使城市制定新政策，人们越来越关注是否能通过城市 规划来应对克服这些难题。近二十年来，澳大利亚的城市规划试图通过整理城市土地来减少对交通 能源的需求。外城和城郊地区对交通能源的依赖程度最高。但目前城市住房市场的结构又严重限制 了城市规划政策在城市中间地带和外围地区进行土地整理的能力。如果将密度红利交给私营部门， 就更是如此了。本文作者认为，目前的规划政策依赖城市土地整理，因此在市郊大幅减少交通排放 的潜力很有限。这样的政策还可能因为交通燃料成本提高而导致的排放交易体系或全球油价提高， 导致结果在社会中的不公平分布。文章提出全面反思目前的城市交通、城市规划和市郊发展模式， 减少澳大利亚城市中间地带和外围郊区对交通能源的依赖。