A heterogeneous latent class model of activity rescheduling, route choice and information acquisition decisions under multiple uncertain events

摘要

Travel information plays a central role in reducing uncertainty and persuading travelers to act in particular ways. It may result in activity-travel rescheduling decisions. The modeling of such behavior is relatively complex as it goes beyond simple route/link choice. Moreover, it involves multiple uncertain events that may appear at different points in the future. In addition, travelers may differ in their attitudes toward risk and the decision heuristics they apply. This paper develops a decision model that incorporates these aspects and reports the results of an interactive computer experiment which was developed to collect data on activity-travel rescheduling under multiple uncertain events and information acquisition. The results of the model estimation suggest that the model performed well.