Responses to Transit Information among Car-drivers: Regret-based Models and Simulations

摘要

This article investigates the use and effects of transit information among car drivers that consider transit as a mode-option in their choice set. It does so by first presenting a theoretical model of travel information use and effect, based on the integration of notions of Bayesian updating into a regret-based framework of travel choice. Subsequently, numerical simulation of the model provides insights into the mechanisms behind information use and effect in a mode-choice context where a traveler has both car- as well as transit-options in their choice set, and prefers traveling by car over riding by transit. These simulations show that the perceived value of acquiring transit information is limited by a number of factors. Furthermore they demonstrate that, even in the case where transit information is acquired, and the message is favorable to transit, its impact on mode choices will also be limited. Given these results for non-habitual car-drivers, it is suggested that for car-drivers in general (thus including the large share of habitual drivers), conservative estimates regarding the impact of transit information provision on modal shift would be realistic.