Predictions sometimes proue a mere bump in the road of history

摘要

Most people confine their predicting behaviour to the month of January,as though they were required to by law. It is unclear why January was chosen as the month of reckless license. It was probably to do with New Year's resolutions, which in turn are inextricably tied up with desk diaries, those epic works of fiction that have such a poor record of dealing with next week, let alone next year. An interesting example of this surfaced in the year 2000 when the former head of a famous think tank broke with tradition and released a load of predictions before Christmas instead. As if by magic his predictions made him a laughing stock. They included a new political alliance between the Greens, the Euro-agriculturalists and the trades unions; the resignation of Tony Blair, and a new government devoted to devolution and environmentalism that would dissolve into chaos by 2004. If only he had waited!