Low carbon futures: Confronting electricity challenges on island systems

摘要

This paper considers the range of possible long-term futures for an electrically isolated island power system. Emphasis is given to generation investment decisions supportive of low-carbon renewable generation. Ranges of policy interventions are considered for the electrically isolated case study island of Sao Miguel in the Azores islands in the North Atlantic Ocean. The whole systems methodological approach of System Dynamics is used to bring together key sub-systems relating to generation adequacy, renewable generation investments and demand-side aspects. In this way, a comprehensive understanding is established with high levels of endogeneity. The model is used to investigate a range of policy scenarios associated with renewable energy growth, electric-vehicle uptake and electricity storage. It is found that policy is most effective when all aspects are addressed simultaneously and in a co-ordinated manner. Furthermore policy favouring renewable generation alone is not sufficient to achieve the highest possible penetration of renewables. Finally, the robustness of the observations is addressed via Monte-Carlo based sensitivity testing.