Designing a forecasting analysis to understand the diffusion of open source software in the year 2010

摘要

Open source software (OSS) is being considered the new paradigm of software distribution. As contrasted with the traditional software marketing model, OSS pursues the freedom to have access to open source and offers several advantages to enterprises. These advantages include saving costs related to Information Systems and Technologies (IS/IT) and the possibility of adapting to changing organizational requirements. However, the recent forthcoming of OSS prevents us from knowing the real impact it has today on social and organizational fields. Having considered this obstacle, the authors have defined a foreseeable setting for OSS diffusion and adoption by means of a forecasting study based on the Delphi method for the year 2010. The findings reveal the levels of OSS diffusion for this year according to the main applications, geographic regions and industries. In a complementary manner, the authors have studied the elements of success as well as the most relevant obstacles for diffusing and adopting technological solutions based on OSS.