Comparison of six different methods of Weibull distribution for wind power assessment: A case study for a site in the Northern region of Pakistan

摘要

Pakistan is one of those countries that heavily dependent on hydrocarbon fuel for energy production which results in severe climate change. Although renewable energy resources, like wind, are available in abundance, they are not completely utilized due to which energy crises of the country increases day by day. This study comprehensively elaborates the potential of wind power of a site located in the Northern part of Pakistan. The potential of wind power for the site was accessed and analyzed by using two years (2016-18) wind data at four heights (80, 60, 40 and 20m from sea level). Six numerical methods are used for the estimation of Weibull parameters (shape 'k' and scale 'c'). Using these parameters, Weibull mean velocity, power density, and energy density are computed at all mast heights for each year. The seasonal wind characteristics parameters and power density are also calculated. Among these methods, the modified maximum likelihood method (MMLM) is found to be the most effective method to represent the wind data, while the graphical method (GM) showed the weakest fit. Root mean square error (RMSE), determination of coefficient (R-2), and mean bias error (MBE) are computed to validate the computed results. Wind power potential assessment of the calculated data shows that the proposed location is appropriate for small scale wind energy generation.