Large-scale optimization of multi-pollutant control strategies in the Pearl River Delta region of China using a genetic algorithm in machine learning

摘要

A scientifically sound integrated assessment modeling (IAM) system capable of providing optimized cost-benefit analysis is essential in effective air quality management and control strategy development Yet scenario optimization for large-scale applications is limited by the computational expense of optimization over many control factors. In this study, a multi-pollutant cost-benefit optimization system based on a genetic algorithm (GA) in machine learning has been developed to provide cost-effective air quality control strategies for large-scale applications (e.g., solution spaces of ～10~(35)). The method was demonstrated by providing optimal cost-benefit control pathways to attain air quality goals for fine paniculate matter (PM_(2.5)) and ozone (O_3) over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China. The GA was found to be ＞99% more efficient than the commonly used grid searching method while providing the same combination of optimized multi-pollutant control strategies. The GA method can therefore address air quality management problems that are intractable using the grid searching method. The annual attainment goals for PM_(2.5) (＜ 35 μg m~(-3)) and O_3 (＜ 80 ppb) can be achieved simultaneously over the PRD region and surrounding areas by reducing NO_x (22%), volatile organic compounds (VOCs, 12%), and primary PM (30%) emissions. However, to attain stricter PM_(2.5) goals, SO_2 reductions (＞ 9%) are needed as well. The estimated benefit-to-cost ratio of the optimal control strategy reached 17.7 in our application, demonstrating the value of multi-pollutant control for cost-effective air quality management in the PRD region.