Unrealistic optimism and event threat

摘要

Individuals typically exhibit “unrealistic optimism” (UO), the belief that they are less likely than the average person to experience a negative event. This may be because, fearing the event, they try to reassure themselves by distorting their reasoning to conclude that they are at comparatively little risk. If this is so, the greater the “event threat” (i.e., the more serious the event's consequences and/or the greater the likelihood that those consequences will be experienced), the more reassurance should be required, and the greater the UO that should be observed. This prediction was tested in a study in which students (N = 148) were informed about a type of heart disease that could develop in later life due to inadequate diet when young. The risk attributable to diet was stated to be either slight (low-threat condition) or great (high-threat condition). Participants were asked to rate their own risk and that of the average student of developing the disease; question order was counterbalanced. The effects of event threat and question order were found to interact: event threat affected UO in the predicted way, but only when the question about own risk came first. The results are explained in motivational terms. Implications for health education are discussed.