The economic cycle is fundamentally sound

摘要

The global economic cycle bottomed out in 2001, since when there has been a sustained upturn amongst the major countries. There has been a recurrent fear among investors, though, that this cycle will come to an abrupt end - returning investors to such risks as deflation and bear markets. A variety of culprits are periodically brought to court: the US consumer, more recently the US housing market, the surge in oil prices or the impact of higher raw material costs on company margins, policy mistakes by China, Germany or Japan, and finally, that perennial favourite, the 'unmanageable' US current account deficit.