供給量を考慮したサプライチェーンの業務停止期間に関する地震リスク解析

摘要

1．まえがき地震などの自然災害による企業のリスクを考える場合，建物や生産設備の被害あるいは労働者の被災といった直接税害とともに，直接損害や地域の購買力低下による生産の減少といった間接損害を考えることが重要である。損害の評価には，想定災害（想定地震）に対する損害を評価する確定論的方法や災害の発生を確率事象として損害の確率分布を評価する確率論的な方法があり，近年ではPML（ProbableMaximum Loss：予想最大損失）等，確率論的な損失の記述も定着してきた。%Business continuity is now being regarded as an important factor in management of enterprises. Since most of the businesses are not stand-alone; they depend on supply chains, for their operations, authors have been proposed a risk analysis method regarding to business interruption time of supply chain system. However the existing method is not realistic for the following aspects; simultaneous supply from several suppliers and partial supply with less business interruption time can not be included in the analysis. This paper proposes the method to solve the issues mentioned above as well as the method to achieve the rational countermeasure to reduce the business interruption risk. These two proposals are applied to the model supply chain consisting of six nodes in Kanto region, followed by the demonstration of the efficiency of proposed methods.