Sequential Monte Carlo simulation for composite power system reliability analysis with time varying loads

摘要

The paper illustrates the development and utilization of an annual chronological load curve for each load bus in a composite generation and transmission system and a sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach for composite system reliability assessment. Antithetic variates as a variance reduction technique has been applied to the simulation model to increase the efficiency of the simulation. An approximate method using a load duration curve of the system load and an enumeration process have been applied to the developed load model and the results are compared in this paper.