The problem considered concerns expansion planning for combined heat and power (CHP) systems. The purpose is to develop a new method for pet-forming probabilistic production simulation. This is done by extending the probabilistic approach for power generation simulation to include heat generation as well. The probabilistic approach is based on two-dimensional probability load density functions. By convolution of the combined heat and power units, the equivalent load functions are obtained and the expected energy generation of the units, the expected unserved energy, and the expected overflow are determined. It is shown that in the CHP system a trade off between unserved energy and overflow energy is inherent and therefore the analysis is qualitatively different from analysis of systems with only power units. The corresponding theory is developed and case studies demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.
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