Pseudo-chronological simulation for composite reliability analysis with time varying loads

摘要

This paper presents a new methodology to evaluate loss of load indices, with particular emphasis on LOLC (loss of load cost) assessment, for composite generation and transmission systems considering time varying loads for different areas or buses. The proposed approach, named pseudo-chronological simulation, retains the computational efficiency of nonsequential Monte Carlo simulation and the ability to model chronological load curves in sequential simulation. It considers the actual blocks of unsupplied energy per consumer class, per bus, and the respective duration, to accurately characterize the interruption process. Case studies on the IEEE-MRTS (Modified Reliability Test System) and the BSS (Brazilian South-Southeastern System) are presented and discussed.