Modeling, Measuring, and Distinguishing Path Dependence, Outcome Dependence, and Outcome Independence

摘要

Path dependence is commonly used to describe processes where “history matters,” which encompasses many different kinds of temporal dynamics. This essay distinguishes path-, or equilibrium-, dependent processes where early conditions continue to matter, from outcome-dependent processes where recent history matters and from outcome-independent processes where history does not matter. Others have argued for a precise and restrictive definition of path dependence. We build on this and distinguish among different types of outcome-dependent processes when these conditions for path dependence are not fully satisfied.