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Modelling insurgent and terrorist networks as self-organised complex adaptive systems

机译:将叛乱和恐怖网络建模为自组织的复杂自适应系统

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This paper introduces a multi-agent-based simulation toolkit (called SOTCAC) that uses autonomous, intelligent agents to represent the components of coevolving terrorist network (TNet) and counterterrorist network (CTNet). The model (currently in development) is predicated on the proposition that adaptive agents can be used to describe the self-organised, emergent behaviour of TNets - conceived as complex adaptive systems - on three interrelated dynamical levels: (1) dynamics on networks, in which notional terrorist agents process and interpret information, search and acquire resources and adapt to other agents' actions; (2) dynamics of networks, in which the TNet itself is a fully dynamic, adaptive entity and whose agents build, maintain and modify the network's local (and therefore, collectively, its global) topology and (3) dynamics between networks, in which the TNet and CTNet mutually coevolve. The TNet's 'goal' is to achieve the critical infrastructure (of manpower, weapons, financial resources and logistics) required to strike, while the CTNet's mission is to prevent the TNet from doing so. The ultimate goal for developing SOTCAC is to provide INTEL analysts with a larger context of 'plausibly possible' TNet«-» CTNet coevolutions - as they could be - so that TNets can be better understood as they are and as they are likely to adapt. And since the way in which the CTNet collects, assimilates, fuses and derives inferences about what the terrorist 'looks like' is prescribed (via local, context-dependent properties and behaviours) - not scripted - SOTCAC may also help analysts discover novel data-fusion and 'ground truth' inference strategies.
机译:本文介绍了一个基于多代理的仿真工具包(称为SOTCAC),该工具包使用自治的智能代理来表示协同发展的恐怖网络(TNet)和反恐网络(CTNet)的组成部分。该模型(当前正在开发中)基于以下假设:自适应代理可用于在三个相互关联的动态级别上描述TNet的自组织,突发行为-被认为是复杂的自适应系统-(1)网络动力学哪个概念恐怖分子特工处理和解释信息,搜索和获取资源以及适应其他特工的行动; (2)网络的动态,其中TNet本身是一个完全动态的,自适应的实体,并且其代理构建,维护和修改网络的本地(因此也统称为其全局)拓扑,以及(3)网络之间的动态,其中TNet和CTNet相互协作。 TNet的“目标”是实现罢工所需的关键基础设施(人力,武器,财务资源和后勤),而CTNet的任务是阻止TNet这样做。开发SOTCAC的最终目的是为INTEL分析师提供“可能的” TNet«-»CTNet协同进化的更广阔的背景-以便它们能使人们更好地理解TNet,因为它们可能会适应。而且由于CTNet收集,吸收,融合和得出有关恐怖分子“看起来”的推论的方式(通过本地的,与上下文相关的属性和行为)是有规定的-并非脚本化的-SOTCAC还可帮助分析人员发现新数据-融合和“地面真理”推理策略。

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