Colloquium PaperAdaptive Agents Intelligence and Emergent Human Organization: Capturing Complexity through Agent-Based Modeling: Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems

摘要

Recent work on adaptive systems for modeling financial markets is discussed. Financial markets are viewed as evolutionary systems between different, competing trading strategies. Agents are boundedly rational in the sense that they tend to follow strategies that have performed well, according to realized profits or accumulated wealth, in the recent past. Simple technical trading rules may survive evolutionary competition in a heterogeneous world where prices and beliefs co-evolve over time. Evolutionary models can explain important stylized facts, such as fat tails, clustered volatility, and long memory, of real financial series.