VLCC Market Trends

摘要

1. While December was a more positive month for the VLCC market than November, with average spot earnings rising 58% m-o-m to $19,017/day, the market began 2021 on a very weak note. By mid-January, VLCC earnings had dropped below $7,000/day, amidst ongoing OPEC+ supply cuts and the return of further ships from oil storage to active service. 2. Saudi Arabia's announcement that it would deepen supply cuts by an additional 1m bpd in February-March is likely to lead to continued substantial pressure on the VLCC market in the short-term. Overall, while VLCC dwt demand is projected to increase in 2021, by 1.7%, ongoing supply cuts and stock drawdowns are expected to lead to VLCC demand remaining well below 2019 levels this year. 3. The share of the VLCC fleet in floating storage has continued to ease over recent months, reaching 9.7% of fleet capacity in mid-January. This compares to 10.9% in early December, and 13% at the end of October. Further drawdowns are expected to exert continued supply side pressure in the short-term.