Risk for Carotid Intima-Medial Thickness in Recently Menopausal Women Enrolled in the Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS): Determination Using Fuzzy Logic

摘要

Previously, the biological factors were weighed by the expert opinions. In this paper, we evaluate the risk factors proposed by the expert opinions. We use fuzzy logic techniques for predicting risk for development of carotid intima-medial thickness (CIMT) using expert opinion and various factors associated with CIMT in recently menopausal women. Study participants were enrolled in the Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS), a four-year study where participants were assigned to either oral or transdermal hormone treatments or to placebo. We use preference modeling techniques to determine the consensus winner of the causal factors. We use a measure to determine the degree to which one factor is preferred to another. We also determine the extent to which a factor is preferred to another by "most" experts. We determine the degree to which the experts agree. We consider a model concerning social networks and the effects of these networks on persons' opinions.