Natural hazards in the Bavarian Alps: a historical approach to risk assessment

摘要

The Bavarian Alps region is strongly affected by various natural hazards, mainly hydrological events (floods, debris flows), geomorphic/geological events (landslides, rock falls), and avalanches. Extraordinary floods, like in 2002 or in the summer of 2005 in south Bavaria, have again posed the question of the possible extent and frequency of recurrence of catastrophic events. To put risk assessment on a broader basis historical data about all kinds of past natural hazards were detected in the archives of local authorities and administrative offices for water management. More than 10,000 sources (written accounts, maps, and photographs) were collated in a database. The majority of this information reaches back to the middle of the 19th century. In addition, many documents referring to events dating back even as far as the middle age were found. The Historische Analyse von NaturGefahren (HANG, historical analysis of natural hazards) project at the University of Eichstaett mainly focuses on a small-scale examination of the data. Initial results of the data analysis show that most catastrophic events in the Bavarian Alps only affect parts of the area, but not the whole region. Therefore it is necessary to assess the risk potential on a local scale like valleys, the catchment areas of mountain streams, or even single streams. Firstly the presented data is aimed to help engineers in future planning of hazard-protection measures. Secondly the information can form a vital component to enhance our knowledge of hydrological and geomorphic/geological dynamics in the Alps.