An artificial neural network-based forecasting model of energy-related time series for electrical grid management

摘要

Forecasting of energy-related variables is crucial for accurate planning and management of electrical power grids, aiming at improving overall efficiency and performance. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN)-based model is investigated for short-term forecasting of the hourly wind speed, solar radiation, and electrical power demand. Specifically, the non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) ANN is considered, compared to other models, and then selected to perform multi-step-ahead forecasting. Different time horizons have been considered in the range between 8 and 24 h ahead. The simulation analysis has put in evidence the main advantage of the proposed method, i.e., its capability to reconcile good forecasting performance in the short-term time horizon with a very simple network structure, which is potentially implementable on a low-cost processing platform.