The Need for Operational Forecasting During Oil Spill Response

摘要

The sensitivity of model simulations to wind data and model grid scale is discussed and a methodology for the reception of real-time UK Meteorological Office wind forecasts described. The Sea Empress incident which oc- curred off west Wales during l996 is used to illustrate the techniques, and suggestions are made for the improvement of the national response to major spills. There is a need for Meteorological Office forecasts to be more readily avail- able to the scientific community and for fine grid hydro- dynamic models to be developed for regions considered to be at risk. There should be a shift in the focus of spill modelling towards real-time forecasting and away from the present emphasis on simplistic hindcasting studies. There is a need for a central forecasting service, run ac- cording to UK Meteorological Office protocols, to provide state-of the-art forecasting at the time of a major spill. It is likely that there will continue to be a requirement for PC and workstation-based model simulations for both scientific and operational studies.