Policy Effect and Impact Analysis on Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves

摘要

This article aims to study the policy effect, the trend characteristics and the impact of events at home and abroad about China's foreign exchange reserves. Based on the stage partition of China's foreign exchange reserves scale, four intervention models have been constructed to decompose the effect of foreign exchange reserves policy at each stage, exponential smoothing method was used to obtain the trend characteristics of the foreign exchange reserves, then the redundant date obtained after separating the policy effect and trend characteristics reflects the impact characteristics that events at home and abroad exerted on the foreign exchange reserves, the analyzing result is consistent with the actual.