Early Warning Model of Business Group Financial Risks Based on SVM

摘要

As the main subject of social economy activities, business groups faced with uncertain management environment. How to deal with environment risk, especially the financial risk has became the key factor that influence the existence and development of business groups. However, there are few specialized risk prediction model applied on business groups. So in our paper, we chose SVM method to classify and predict business groups' financial data and select right sample as detailed analysis for financial indicators. We chose 10 special treatment business groups and 10 normal state business groups as training samples. Six basic financial indicators and two unique financial indicators of business group are chosen as the input vectors. We trained the data and resulted better performance. Finally we built business group financial risk prediction model based on training result and conclude that SVM method can improve forecast accuracy.