Using Hydrologic Simulation to Explore the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff in the Huaihe River Basin of China

摘要

Climate change has become an environmental issue of utmost importance, and one that will challenge existing water resource management practices in many ways. The Huaihe River, one of China's major rivers, is frequently subject to flooding and drought and, for the purposes of assessing the implications of climate change on water resources in the Huaihe River Basin, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° was calibrated using data from 11 well-gauged subbasins. The model parameters from the well-gauged stations were then transferred to poorly gauged areas according to similarities in, for example, climate conditions and soil texture. The calibrated VIC model was subsequently used to study the potential impacts of three climate change scenarios on basin runoff, taking projected runoff for 1961-1990 as the baseline. In general, the results showed that although the annual runoff will likely increase across the basin under the different scenarios, regional flooding and regional shortage in water resources will be exacerbated under the impacts of global warming.