根据淮河流域1958-2007年观测气温、降水量、径流量数据和NCAR-CCM3、CSIRO_MK3和ECHAM5/MPI-OM三个气候模式数据对该流域气候变化和淮河干流径流量进行预估分析。结果表明：1）淮河流域平均气温，在20世纪90年代以前以降温为主，90年代中后期增温显著；季节上，春秋两季气温呈现波动增加趋势，冬季增暖速率较高，夏季则呈下降趋势；年降水量1958-2007年无突变性的增加或减少趋势，季节变化上，流域夏季降水量变幅较大。2）预估表明，淮河流域未来气温增幅明显，2011-2060年间三模式平均增温相对1961-1990年距平达2．61℃，降水相对1961-1990年距平变幅达-84．6至168．0mm之间波动，相对1958-2007年观测期淮河径流量没有明显变化，2011-2060年淮河径流量可能存在上升趋势。%Based on observed temperature and precipitation data from 1958 to 2007 and climate projection from 2011 to 2060 by NCAR-CCM3、CSIRO_MK3 and ECHAM5/MPI -OM ,changing tendencies of annual temperature ,annual precipitation and runoff in Huaihe basin were analyzed .The results showed that 1) annual temperature displayed a relatively significant decreasing trend before 1990s and then ,in-creasing .Seasonal temperature would rise most significantly in winter and most decreasing in summer ;Annual precipitation show no significant change trend from 1958 to 2007 and had a relatively significant change in summer .2) Comparing with climate from 1961 to 1990 ,temperature would increased to 2 . 61℃ in 2060 and precipitation would change between -84 .6 and 168 .0mm during 2011 -2060 under the three models .Comparing with no tread in 1958 -2007 ,the interannual fluctuations cover an in-creasing streamflow trend under the three models in 2011-2060 .
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