Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Assessment Using Grey Mathematical Programming

摘要

Climate change presents problems for risk assessment procedures due to the difficulty of assigning a measure of probability to any future scenario. Grey systems theory provides an alternative means of quantifying uncertainty based on interval numbers. Within a mathematical programming model, grey systems theory provides a means for working with uncertainties that are not amenable to stochastic or fuzzy quantification. An example of forestry and agricultural expansion in the Mackenzie River Basin is used to illustrate grey mathematical programming in a hop, skip and jump formulation.