The use of system dynamics as a tool for intermediate level technology evaluation: three case studies

摘要

This set of three case studies suggest that traditional approaches to technological evaluation are static and either high level and simplistic, or low level and complex. Further, that they tend to evaluate technology in terms of itself, rather than the domain it is intended to support. A holistic and dynamic method, based upon system dynamics simulation modelling, is described for the early evaluation of technology at an intermediate and balanced level. The method is demonstrated by applying it to the evaluation of management information systems (MIS) in the defence industry and new drugs in the pharmaceuticals industry. The approach involves the creation of dynamic simulation models of the anticipated domain of application of the technology and their use as a test bed to evaluate the systemic impact of the technology over time. Very importantly, the method allows the contribution of each aspect of the technology to be assessed and facilitates investigation of alternative structural and operating changes to the domain itself, to make best use of the technology.