Peer interaction and learning: Cross-country diffusion of solar photovoltaic technology

摘要

We develop a two-dimensional dynamic framework in this work to theoretically and empirically capture cross national diffusion interactions of technology innovation, including different types of learning relationships, such as so-called lead-lag, lag-lead, and simultaneous effect, and potential peer interactive relationships, such as the common relationships of mutualism, pure competition, and predator-prey. We find that external and internal effects should not be the only factors determining the penetration of photovoltaic technology that penetration can also be governed largely by the trade-offs between the learning effect and the peer interactive effect. In effect, different combinations of learning effects and peer effects yield different results for technology penetration and market potential. Our conclusions provide effective evidence and insights for multinational technology managers to make decisions related to selecting market entry and timing and to formulating market promotion strategies.