Modeling Competition Between Mobile and Desktop Personal Computer LCD Panels Based on Segment Reporting Sales Information

摘要

This investigation employs the Lotka-model to explore the market competitions between the mobile and desktop personal computer (PC) liquid crystal display (LCD) panels. The sales volumes of desktop and mobile PC LCD panels from each LCD company's segment reporting income statements are summarized into the global sale volumes of the two specific products. Equilibrium analysis is conducted to analyze whether the quarterly sales volume of mobile and desktop PC panels reach the stable equilibrium by the Lyapunov function. This work examines the forecast accuracy of the Lotka-Volterra model. The parameter estimation results of the Lotka-Volterra model show the commensalism relationship between the mobile and the desktop PC LCD panels. The analyses indicate that when making a purchasing decision, a mobile PC is the first choice for consumers who care more about product innovation, quality, and mobility. After purchasing a mobile PC and becoming familiar with its operation, consumers may find that the computing ability and screen size of a mobile PC are too limited; therefore, consumers would purchase a desktop PC. The results of this study will provide the LCD industries insights concerning appropriate investment strategies to maintain competitive advantages. Equilibrium analysis results demonstrate that the quarterly sales volume of the mobile and desktop PC panels will reach stable equilibrium around 2020, maintaining the quarterly sale amount stabilized at 59,269 and 79,503 thousand pieces for desktop and mobile PC LCD panels, respectively. Finally, the analysis results show that Lotka-Volterra equations predict the global sales volumes of mobile PC and desktop PC panels accurately.