Probabilistic Optimal Safety with Minimum Life-Cycle Cost Based on Stochastic Finite Element Analysis of Steel Cable-Stayed Bridges

摘要

This study was intended to efficiently perform the probabilistic safety and optimal design assessment of steel cable-stayed bridges (SCS bridges) using stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) and expected life-cycle cost (LCC) concept. To that end, advanced probabilistic finite element algorithm (APFEA) which enables to execute the static and dynamic SFEA considering aleatory uncertainties contained in random variable was developed. APFEA is the useful analytical means enabling to conduct the reliability assessment (RA) in a systematic way by considering the result of SFEA based on linearity and nonlinearity of before or after introducing initial tensile force. Appropriateness of APFEA was verified in such a way of comparing the result of SFEA of a simple structure and the result of numerical analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) program. The probabilistic method of SCS bridges was set, taking into account of analytical parameters. The dynamic response characteristic by probabilistic method was evaluated using ASFEA, and RA was carried out based on analysis result, thereby quantitatively calculating the probabilistic safety. The optimal design of SCS bridges was determined based on the expected LCC according to the results of SFEA and RA of alternative designs. Moreover, given the potential epistemic uncertainty contained in safety index, failure probability and minimum LCC, the sensitivity analysis was conducted and as a result, a critical distribution phase was illustrated using a cumulative-percentile.