Applying system dynamics simulation to proactively identify and address unintended consequences

摘要

This paper outlines how managers or policy makers can use system dynamics tools to clarify their thinking in order to better identify and address the unintended consequences created by their change efforts. Prominent systems thinkers have maintained that to truly understand a complex system you have to observe how the parts of the system interact. System dynamics tools allow people to create and observe these interactions in a condensed time frame, which in turn allows them to learn from the model and then apply these insights to reality. The key stumbling block has always been the uncertainty that a model accurately reflects reality. In this paper we show that insights can be gained simply by building the model. Once our thinking becomes visible to others we can refine and improve our models using group processes.