Competition and alliances in fuel cell power train development

摘要

For the realisation of the effective application and cost effectiveness of fuel cell power trains, and competitiveness with the current internal combustion engine technology, it will be necessary to either: (a) produce a large number of vehicles, (b) reduce the production costs by permanent production optimisation, or (c) introduce new materials. Learning curves, which have been derived from empirical data of past energy technologies, are initially used to provide a cost prognosis for the market launch of fuel cell power trains. Drawing on game theory the paper then describes a basic model which addresses the issue of the optimal strategy of the automotive industry, in either a monopoly or oligopoly structure. When this model's outputs are combined with the anticipated rate of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), learning curves and network effects, from the first section of the paper we can see that if the successful market launch of FCVs is desired, an alliance structure within the automotive industry is the optimal path.